Dion prorogued six months early

The big news today was confirmation from Stephane Dion that he supports a stepped up process to select a new leader for the Liberal Party of Canada before the prorogation of parliament is lifted. That may come as early as this week if party insiders are able to use existing to rules to coronate Michael Ignatieff at their upcoming caucus meeting. What are the implications for the Harper government, the Coalition, the lib leadership hopefuls and the NDP?

Well, it looks like some of the heat has been extinguished from under Harper's ass but then again he won't have Stephane Dion to kick around any more. The conservatives (outside Quebec) will continue to play on a combination of the public's ignorance of our political system, their overall apathy and a preference for "total executive control" as Stuart Parker put it in his Facebook post. Even as Dion announced his revised intentions, the tory ads continue to attack Dion.

But what I have found even more offensive than the conservative election attack ads against Dion, has been the incessant criticism from his own partisans about his "speaking ability". Is that because he speaks English as a second language or because he has hearing disability? Take your pick. This bigotry was a large factor in his quick demise. I heard Dion speak both on the radio after Harpers statement last week (yes, I missed the fuzzy video) and in person at Toronto City Hall on Saturday. While he didn't exactly inspire, he was coherent and I would not say that he was an ineffective communicator. Enough about that.

Romeo Leblanc has withdrawn from the leadership race and has thrown his support to Michael Ignatieff who also enjoys support from a majority of the Liberal caucus. Bob Rae favours "one member, one vote" and not a caucus selection process for the party's next leader. Rae, in an email to his supporters today, makes a strong case for allowing the members to have a vote, particularly because their caucus is so unrepresentative of Canadians as a whole.

Micheal Ignatieff, for his part, sent his own email out today. He extolled the democratic way in which a the rules were set to mandate the party executive and caucus members to make the decision should the current leader step down before a leadership convention. Michael's just following the rules and would be honoured to be coronated he says. He wants to see the budget before rushing to judgment. Sounds sensible enough but we all know that Harper cannot be trusted. For those who didn't quite know it before, they should know it by now.

Of course, the Vancouver leadership convention is still supposed to go ahead in May but what happens if there's an election first? I guess that might depend on what the results of the election were. If Ignatieff were to win, the matter would be settled. Were Harper to get a majority, Bob Rae may get the chance to lead the opposition for at least 4 years. There are a lot of variables but it is a liberal tradition for them to hammer each other harder than they hammer the conservatives. And with Harper's gambit to isolate and attack Quebec voters, his prospects for a majority may be diminished - many, incuding an editorial in today's Globe and Mail, say that he's finished in Quebec.

My fear, which is undoubtedly shared by at least a few is that Ignatieff will be very reluctant to pursue the coalition very far, for fear of both voter backlash and Liberal backroom wheelers and dealers. I can imagine that if the Conservatives felt that they successfully grew some public support (outside Quebec) by claiming that Dion had no mandate for a coalition, their argument, left unchallenged, is even stronger if the PM were to be selected soley by Liberal MPs and Senators. Don Martin opines in the National Post that this could tilt the Governor General's response to a vote of non-confidence towards an election and not a coalition.

In the meantime, pardon the overused cliche, but the elephant in the room remains electoral reform. And for that to enter the discussion, grassroots pressure will need to be exerted on all politicians from every party. Without the public clamoring for real change, it's hard to expect that anyone, including the NDP, are going to stick their necks out.